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H-1B lottery odds for one job

From the FY2027 cap the draw is weighted by wage. Put in the job, where it is and the offer, and see the level DOL's own figures give it and DHS's estimated chance at that level.

The occupation code on the LCA.

A range counts by its lowest wage.

The one current when the registration is filed.

Every year's registrations and selections, from USCIS's own table, are on H-1B lottery odds by year. Cap-exempt employers, such as universities and their affiliated nonprofits, file outside the lottery.

Common questions

How is my lottery level decided?
By 8 CFR 214.2(h)(8)(iii)(A)(4): the highest OEWS wage level the offered wage equals or exceeds for the job's SOC code in the area of employment. A wage under level I, allowed when it comes from another prevailing wage source, counts as level I. With several work areas, the lowest level the wage meets counts, and a wage range counts by its lowest wage.
Where do the odds come from?
From DHS's estimate in the final rule, 90 FR 60864 (Dec. 29, 2025), estimate at 60947-60948: about 15% at level I, 31% at level II, 46% at level III and 61% at level IV, against 29.59% for everyone under the old random draw. DHS worked them out from past petitions before the first weighted lottery ran, assuming employers keep their current wages.
Which wage series counts?
The OEWS figures current on the day the registration is filed. OEWS wages turn over every July 1, so a registration filed in March uses the series that opened the July before. The rule keeps that level even if the figures change before the petition is filed.
What if DOL has no wage for my job in my area?
Then the rule has the registrant choose the level from the job's requirements, using DOL's prevailing wage guidance. That's a judgement about the job, so this page says so instead of guessing.

The rules behind these numbers

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